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This statistic, which is traditionally seen as a precursor to foreclosure, reflects a decrease of 3.45 percent from the previous quarter's 6.67 percent national average. Year over year, mortgage borrower delinquency is still up approximately 3.04 percent (from 6.25 percent in the third quarter 2009).
Q3 2010 Mortgage Delinquency Statistics
Analysis and Supporting Quotes
"The mortgage and real estate industry is a dynamic one. Many variables -- both positive and negative -- are coming into play now that before would not have dramatically impacted the industry. The amount of foreclosures that many banks are holding on their books and a new round of ARM resets in the coming months are just two examples. Couple those variables with a stubborn unemployment rate, and one can see how a positive three quarter trend might quickly abate.
"However, this decline in mortgage delinquency rates, in tandem with a stabilization in housing prices in many areas of the country and record low interest rates for mortgage loans, are all positive signs that this industry is moving in the right direction, coming out of one of the worst recessions in recent memory. In addition, TransUnion is seeing positive movement and some traction in the industry in terms of real estate inquiries."
- FJ Guarrera, vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit
This positive movement and traction in consumer-initiated, real estate inquiries is captured in TransUnion's 90-day Real Estate Inquiry Index. As of the third quarter, the Real Estate Inquiry Index for the nation stood at 72.86 -- up 443 basis points or 6.5 percent when compared to the second quarter (68.43). On a year-over-year basis, the Index is down 868 basis points or 10.6 percent when compared to the third quarter of 2009.
The Real Estate Inquiry Index compares the number of credit reports requested of TransUnion for a real estate transaction during a specific quarter. It is then benchmarked against the average number of inquiries during each quarter in 2000. The year 2000 is used as a benchmark because it is a meaningful launching point prior to an economic downturn, with increasing unemployment and delinquencies trends soon following. By averaging quarterly values during the base year, the impact of seasonality and demographic changes over time are diminished.
A value greater or less than 100 indicates either positive or negative activity for that particular quarter compared to the benchmark year, respectively. By comparing index values for a specific geography or market segment over time, especially for more recent years (2006 through 2010), one can gauge the relative level of consumer activity for seeking real estate related loans.
3Q10 TransUnion Real Estate Inquiry Index Statistics
Mortgage Delinquency Forecast and Supporting Quotes
"TransUnion sees no reversal in the current three quarter trend. We believe that the 60-day mortgage delinquency rate will likely continue to drift downward for the remainder of the year, possibly nearing 6.2 percent nationally. Note that this forecast is based on various economic assumptions, including that both real estate values and the employment picture improve gradually. We are noting small improvement in both areas -- monthly job growth numbers and doubling of areas in the U.S. experiencing rising home values. This forecast would certainly change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting the recovery in the housing market."
- FJ Guarrera, vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit.
TransUnion Trend Data Interactive U.S. Map
TransUnion 2Q Mortgage Statistics
ARM Crisis and Why It's Not Over
TransUnion Payment Hierarchy Study
TransUnion Value of Loyalty/Delinquency Study
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TransUnion's Trend Data database
The report is part of an ongoing series of quarterly consumer lending sector analyses focusing on credit card, auto loan and mortgage data available on TransUnion's Web site. Information for this analysis is culled from TransUnion's Trend Data and the anonymous credit files of approximately 10 percent of credit-active U.S. consumers, providing a real-life perspective on how they are managing their credit health.
TransUnion's Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels. For the purpose of this analysis, the term "credit card" refers to those issued by banks.
As a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25 countries on five continents. www.transunion.com/business
Contact Dave Blumberg TransUnion E-mail firstname.lastname@example.org Telephone 312 972 6646